000 FOPZ15 KNHC 200251 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 5 25 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 3 13 29 38 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 92 78 60 33 NA NA NA HURRICANE 5 9 6 4 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 5 9 5 4 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 45KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 17(18) 29(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 11(12) 30(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG/BROWN