000 FOPZ15 KNHC 191432 PWSEP5 HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 22 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 5 31 NA NA TROPICAL STORM X 13 31 49 33 NA NA HURRICANE 99 87 68 46 14 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 16 56 50 36 11 NA NA HUR CAT 2 68 25 14 7 2 NA NA HUR CAT 3 15 5 3 2 1 NA NA HUR CAT 4 1 X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90KT 80KT 75KT 70KT 35KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 33(61) 12(73) X(73) X(73) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 8(31) X(31) X(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 5( 5) 16(21) 35(56) 14(70) X(70) X(70) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 23(33) 14(47) X(47) X(47) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) X(27) X(27) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 28(48) X(48) X(48) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 22(32) X(32) X(32) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 21 6(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 64 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 10 7(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN