000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180235 PWSEP5 HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 0300 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 155 KTS...180 MPH...285 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 27 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 2 32 TROPICAL STORM X X X 1 6 18 22 HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 93 81 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X X 4 26 31 7 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 15 29 22 5 HUR CAT 3 X 1 10 39 27 21 7 HUR CAT 4 1 20 50 34 10 7 2 HUR CAT 5 99 79 39 7 1 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 160KT 150KT 140KT 120KT 105KT 80KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 16(18) 35(53) 10(63) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 9(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 35(50) 13(63) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 9(30) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 32(40) 15(55) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 19(31) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 22(42) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 23(51) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MANZANILLO 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 12(13) 42(55) 14(69) 10(79) 3(82) X(82) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 15(33) 10(43) 4(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 8(25) 3(28) X(28) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 16(38) 3(41) 1(42) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 5(22) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA