000 FOPZ15 KNHC 171437 PWSEP5 HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 1500 UTC SAT OCT 17 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 9 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 2 14 TROPICAL STORM X X X X 4 22 45 HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 96 76 32 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X X 2 20 36 23 HUR CAT 2 X X 2 10 25 22 6 HUR CAT 3 2 3 15 35 35 14 2 HUR CAT 4 66 49 56 41 14 4 X HUR CAT 5 32 48 27 12 2 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 135KT 140KT 135KT 125KT 110KT 95KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 14(37) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 14(34) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 18(33) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 31(40) 24(64) 4(68) 2(70) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20(32) 4(36) 1(37) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 4(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 14(43) 5(48) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 2(18) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN