000 FOPZ15 KNHC 171011 PWSEP5 HURRICANE RICK SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 1015 UTC SAT OCT 17 2009 AT 1015Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 5 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 11 TROPICAL STORM X X X 1 3 22 47 HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 97 77 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 4 20 36 27 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 14 24 24 7 HUR CAT 3 4 8 23 40 36 14 3 HUR CAT 4 83 62 55 35 14 4 X HUR CAT 5 13 29 18 8 2 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 130KT 135KT 130KT 120KT 110KT 95KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 12(26) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 13(24) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 35(57) 4(61) 2(63) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 3(29) 2(31) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 19(47) 6(53) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 4(23) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI