000 FOPZ15 KNHC 162038 PWSEP5 HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 2 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X X 6 TROPICAL STORM X X X X 1 10 44 HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 99 90 49 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 15 6 4 2 8 29 32 HUR CAT 2 71 25 14 8 18 27 12 HUR CAT 3 13 54 45 34 37 25 5 HUR CAT 4 2 14 32 43 30 8 1 HUR CAT 5 X 1 5 14 6 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90KT 105KT 115KT 125KT 120KT 105KT 85KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 15(43) 4(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 2(22) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 13(45) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN