000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160235 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1 TROP DEPRESSION 1 1 1 X X X 2 TROPICAL STORM 87 39 22 7 2 4 15 HURRICANE 12 60 78 93 98 96 82 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 12 51 49 31 11 16 33 HUR CAT 2 1 8 20 29 20 22 23 HUR CAT 3 X 2 8 26 38 35 20 HUR CAT 4 X X 1 7 25 19 5 HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 4 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 70KT 80KT 95KT 115KT 115KT 105KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) ACAPULCO 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) P MALDONADO 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P ANGEL 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) 8(49) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 15(34) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE