000 FOPZ15 KNHC 102035 PWSEP5 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 2100 UTC FRI OCT 10 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 43 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 1 9 32 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 3 29 50 17 NA NA NA HURRICANE 97 71 40 9 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 59 52 30 5 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 33 15 8 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 5 4 3 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85KT 70KT 60KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 3 11(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 8 13(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN JOSE CABO 34 6 14(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LA PAZ 34 8 46(54) 6(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) LA PAZ 50 1 10(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LA PAZ 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 4 45(49) 28(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) LORETO 50 X 8( 8) 31(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) LORETO 64 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HERMOSILLO 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BAHIA KINO 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GUAYMAS 34 X 10(10) 31(41) 6(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GUAYMAS 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 1 15(16) 49(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) HUATABAMPO 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 14(16) 31(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CULICAN 34 3 16(19) 16(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CULICAN 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULICAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG