000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070848 PWSEP5 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 0900 UTC TUE OCT 07 2008 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 3 26 TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 2 3 17 35 TROPICAL STORM 18 24 23 31 45 61 36 HURRICANE 82 76 76 67 51 19 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 77 60 50 42 37 17 3 HUR CAT 2 4 13 19 18 10 2 X HUR CAT 3 1 3 6 7 4 X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 80KT 80KT 80KT 70KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 4(21) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 7(20) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 17(20) 21(41) 15(56) 2(58) X(58) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 21(32) 9(41) 1(42) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN