000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050855 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 0900 UTC SUN OCT 05 2008 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 2 2 4 TROP DEPRESSION 3 3 5 4 5 11 19 TROPICAL STORM 93 73 59 50 52 58 62 HURRICANE 4 24 36 45 41 28 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 22 30 34 30 23 15 HUR CAT 2 1 2 4 7 8 5 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 3 3 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 75KT 75KT 75KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 9(27) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN