000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050241 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 0300 UTC SUN OCT 05 2008 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 2 3 3 5 6 TROP DEPRESSION 22 22 20 16 11 16 25 TROPICAL STORM 77 73 67 63 58 61 59 HURRICANE 1 4 10 19 28 19 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 4 9 15 23 16 10 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 3 3 2 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 65KT 65KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART