000 FOPZ15 KNHC 162035 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 141N 1080W 34 19 8(27) 6(33) 2(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) 12 141N 1080W 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 12 141N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 145N 1075W 34 9 11(20) 8(28) 4(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) 24 145N 1075W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 24 145N 1075W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 36 150N 1075W 34 4 10(14) 10(24) 5(29) 3(32) 1(33) 1(34) 36 150N 1075W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 36 150N 1075W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 155N 1080W 34 2 5( 7) 9(16) 7(23) 4(27) 1(28) 1(29) 48 155N 1080W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 48 155N 1080W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 160N 1085W 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 5(22) 2(24) 1(25) 72 160N 1085W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 72 160N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 165N 1090W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 2(19) 1(20) 96 165N 1090W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 165N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 170N 1095W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) 120 170N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 120 170N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 35 35 35 35 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA