000 FOPZ15 KNHC 152031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 151N 1087W 34 33 11(44) 4(48) 1(49) 3(52) 1(53) X(53) 12 151N 1087W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 12 151N 1087W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 151N 1087W 34 33 11(44) 4(48) 1(49) 3(52) 1(53) X(53) 24 151N 1087W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 24 151N 1087W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 151N 1087W 34 33 11(44) 4(48) 1(49) 3(52) 1(53) X(53) 36 151N 1087W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 36 151N 1087W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 151N 1087W 34 33 11(44) 4(48) 1(49) 3(52) 1(53) X(53) 48 151N 1087W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 48 151N 1087W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 150N 1085W 34 35 7(42) 3(45) 1(46) 4(50) 1(51) X(51) 72 150N 1085W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 72 150N 1085W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 150N 1085W 34 35 7(42) 3(45) 1(46) 4(50) 1(51) X(51) 96 150N 1085W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 96 150N 1085W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 120 150N 1085W 34 35 7(42) 3(45) 1(46) 4(50) 1(51) X(51) 120 150N 1085W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 120 150N 1085W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB