000 FOPZ14 KNHC 240239 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 2 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 3 14 TROPICAL STORM X X 1 1 5 34 57 HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 95 62 27 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 5 11 24 39 22 HUR CAT 2 X 4 14 24 28 16 4 HUR CAT 3 6 36 44 38 31 7 1 HUR CAT 4 82 53 32 21 11 1 X HUR CAT 5 12 8 5 4 2 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 130KT 125KT 120KT 115KT 110KT 90KT 75KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 43(64) 14(78) 1(79) X(79) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 15(45) X(45) 1(46) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 41(47) 16(63) 3(66) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 12(33) 1(34) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA