000 FOPZ14 KNHC 232042 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 2 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 3 14 TROPICAL STORM X X 1 2 9 35 57 HURRICANE 99 99 99 98 91 62 27 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 5 12 30 38 22 HUR CAT 2 X 4 15 25 29 16 4 HUR CAT 3 6 36 44 37 25 7 1 HUR CAT 4 83 52 31 21 7 1 X HUR CAT 5 11 7 5 4 1 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 130KT 125KT 120KT 115KT 105KT 90KT 75KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 31(36) 33(69) 2(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 2(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) 1(22) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 17(55) 3(58) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) 2(27) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART