000 FOPZ14 KNHC 230239 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X 1 2 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 2 7 TROPICAL STORM X X 1 4 16 29 48 HURRICANE 99 99 99 96 83 68 43 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 5 20 37 39 31 HUR CAT 2 2 4 17 29 26 18 9 HUR CAT 3 36 38 47 34 16 9 2 HUR CAT 4 60 50 26 12 4 2 1 HUR CAT 5 3 6 4 2 X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 120KT 125KT 120KT 110KT 100KT 95KT 85KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 7(28) 4(32) 1(33) X(33) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 19 22(41) 2(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) L CARDENAS 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 31 6(37) 1(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ZIHUATANEJO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 42(47) 16(63) 3(66) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 12(30) 1(31) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 8(37) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER AVILA