000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220241 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 4 6 6 8 TROP DEPRESSION 2 3 4 5 3 3 7 TROPICAL STORM 90 62 39 34 23 28 47 HURRICANE 8 34 55 58 69 63 39 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 7 30 41 37 37 36 29 HUR CAT 2 1 3 10 14 19 16 7 HUR CAT 3 X 1 3 6 10 9 2 HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 3 1 X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 75KT 80KT 90KT 90KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) 1(23) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 24(35) 4(39) 1(40) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 21(34) 3(37) X(37) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 19(39) 6(45) X(45) 1(46) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 23(27) 12(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 1 18(19) 20(39) 2(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) ACAPULCO 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P MALDONADO 34 6 28(34) 4(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) P MALDONADO 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P ANGEL 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATULCO 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) 6(45) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 2(21) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER AVILA