000 FOPZ14 KNHC 211438 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 16 50 59 TROP DEPRESSION X X X 3 37 34 31 TROPICAL STORM X X 13 46 42 15 10 HURRICANE 99 99 87 50 5 X 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 44 37 4 X 1 HUR CAT 2 X 13 28 9 X X X HUR CAT 3 6 56 12 4 X X X HUR CAT 4 82 26 3 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 13 3 X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 130KT 115KT 90KT 75KT 45KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 12(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 37(39) 26(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 6( 6) 16(22) 4(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE