000 FOPZ14 KNHC 191446 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 3 33 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 12 35 TROPICAL STORM 23 8 5 2 15 55 31 HURRICANE 77 92 94 98 83 30 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 46 29 12 36 23 2 HUR CAT 2 5 34 34 25 26 5 X HUR CAT 3 1 10 26 37 17 2 X HUR CAT 4 X 2 5 21 4 X X HUR CAT 5 X X 1 4 X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 85KT 95KT 110KT 95KT 70KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 2(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 13(24) 1(25) 1(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ACAPULCO 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P MALDONADO 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 18(44) 1(45) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 1(19) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 191446 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 3 33 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 12 35 TROPICAL STORM 23 8 5 2 15 55 31 HURRICANE 77 92 94 98 83 30 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 46 29 12 36 23 2 HUR CAT 2 5 34 34 25 26 5 X HUR CAT 3 1 10 26 37 17 2 X HUR CAT 4 X 2 5 21 4 X X HUR CAT 5 X X 1 4 X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 85KT 95KT 110KT 95KT 70KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 2(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 13(24) 1(25) 1(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ACAPULCO 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P MALDONADO 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 18(44) 1(45) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 1(19) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE