000 FOPZ14 KNHC 222045 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010 2100 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 1 7 10 13 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 3 4 9 14 16 TROPICAL STORM 81 62 51 44 47 50 49 HURRICANE 19 36 45 51 38 26 22 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 18 32 35 36 27 20 18 HUR CAT 2 1 4 7 10 8 5 3 HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 4 3 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 65KT 70KT 75KT 75KT 70KT 70KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 3(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 9(24) 2(26) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 22(34) 3(37) 2(39) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 16(33) 3(36) 1(37) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 7(30) X(30) 1(31) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P MALDONADO 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN