000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220831 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010 0900 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 5 8 14 17 TROP DEPRESSION 25 24 16 13 16 16 19 TROPICAL STORM 73 69 66 57 51 48 46 HURRICANE 1 5 16 25 25 22 19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 4 13 21 20 17 15 HUR CAT 2 X X 2 4 3 4 3 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 2 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 65KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 9(23) 2(25) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 6(23) 2(25) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 14(23) 3(26) 1(27) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 7(23) 2(25) X(25) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) P ANGEL 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 3(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) HUATULCO 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) SALINA CRUZ 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH