000 FOPZ14 KNHC 211454 PWSEP4 HURRICANE CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 1500 UTC MON JUN 21 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 2 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 1 16 TROPICAL STORM 7 12 12 11 11 26 55 HURRICANE 93 88 88 89 89 73 27 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 81 55 41 36 33 38 23 HUR CAT 2 11 25 29 26 27 20 4 HUR CAT 3 2 8 14 21 23 12 1 HUR CAT 4 X 1 3 6 6 2 X HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 80KT 85KT 90KT 95KT 90KT 70KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 25(32) 13(45) 2(47) X(47) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN