000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200834 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X X TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 1 1 X 1 TROPICAL STORM 38 19 19 16 11 14 22 HURRICANE 62 80 80 83 89 86 77 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 59 60 46 39 32 31 35 HUR CAT 2 3 16 23 25 28 26 23 HUR CAT 3 1 4 10 15 23 22 16 HUR CAT 4 X X 2 4 6 6 3 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 80KT 85KT 95KT 100KT 100KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 17(32) 4(36) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN