000 FOPZ14 KNHC 191214 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 1230 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010 AT 1230Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 3 2 1 1 3 3 TROP DEPRESSION 37 31 16 8 9 11 14 TROPICAL STORM 60 63 67 56 51 52 54 HURRICANE 1 3 15 35 39 34 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 13 27 28 26 24 HUR CAT 2 X X 2 5 8 6 4 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 3 2 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 50KT 60KT 65KT 65KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN