000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152050 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 2100 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 7 40 54 61 71 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 24 38 32 25 21 TROPICAL STORM 19 37 28 21 14 14 7 HURRICANE 81 62 42 1 X 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 13 35 17 1 X 1 X HUR CAT 2 51 20 15 X X X X HUR CAT 3 16 7 8 X X X X HUR CAT 4 2 2 2 X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 70KT 45KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 3(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 2 33(35) 23(58) 1(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) ACAPULCO 50 X 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ACAPULCO 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) P MALDONADO 34 39 49(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) P MALDONADO 50 4 57(61) 5(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) P MALDONADO 64 X 26(26) 7(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P ANGEL 50 88 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) P ANGEL 64 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATULCO 34 97 X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HUATULCO 50 51 X(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) HUATULCO 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN