000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020856 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2009 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 5 20 31 66 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 1 21 17 9 23 NA TROPICAL STORM 6 45 42 29 23 10 NA HURRICANE 94 53 33 34 37 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 79 45 25 24 25 X NA HUR CAT 2 12 7 6 8 9 X NA HUR CAT 3 2 2 2 3 3 X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 65KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 26 47(73) 6(79) 2(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) P ABREOJOS 50 3 23(26) 6(32) 2(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) P ABREOJOS 64 X 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 68 9(77) 2(79) 2(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) LORETO 50 7 9(16) 1(17) 2(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) LORETO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) HERMOSILLO 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 5(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) BAHIA KINO 34 4 12(16) 10(26) 7(33) 10(43) X(43) X(43) BAHIA KINO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 4 14(18) 6(24) 5(29) 9(38) X(38) X(38) GUAYMAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATABAMPO 34 5 6(11) 2(13) 4(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) HUATABAMPO 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) CULICAN 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BERG