000 FOPZ13 KNHC 072031 PWSEP3 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 2100 UTC FRI AUG 07 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 5 18 35 44 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 9 25 38 38 36 TROPICAL STORM 7 49 69 60 40 25 20 HURRICANE 93 50 22 11 4 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 81 44 18 9 4 2 1 HUR CAT 2 11 5 3 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 2 1 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 65KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 22(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE