000 FOPZ12 KNHC 180235 PWSEP2 HURRICANE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 16(23) 4(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 3(23) X(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) P VALLARTA 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 8(10) 6(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) 1(21) MANZANILLO 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 19(27) 20(47) 3(50) 1(51) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER PASCH