000 FOPZ12 KNHC 160858 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) X(20) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 3(30) 1(31) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 17(25) 2(27) X(27) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 5(23) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 1(20) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN