000 FOPZ12 KNHC 222039 PWSEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 2 2 2 TROP DEPRESSION X 3 8 10 12 15 22 TROPICAL STORM 48 69 63 59 62 67 67 HURRICANE 52 27 29 30 24 16 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 49 24 24 24 21 14 8 HUR CAT 2 3 3 4 5 3 2 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 60KT 60KT 60KT 60KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 34 6 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P MALDONADO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN