000 FOPZ12 KNHC 251451 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 1500 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 17 37 55 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 14 44 43 33 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 36 71 38 19 12 NA NA HURRICANE 64 12 1 1 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 61 11 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 3 1 X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 60KT 40KT 30KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 3 12(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P VALLARTA 34 39 18(57) 4(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) P VALLARTA 50 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 97 X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 25 7(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 78 3(81) 1(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) MANZANILLO 50 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 9(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS