000 FOPZ12 KNHC 240853 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 0900 UTC THU MAY 24 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 3 30 48 57 TROP DEPRESSION X X 2 20 40 35 30 TROPICAL STORM 2 15 48 61 28 17 13 HURRICANE 99 85 49 16 2 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 37 59 39 13 2 1 1 HUR CAT 2 55 19 7 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 6 6 3 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85KT 80KT 70KT 55KT 35KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 9(24) 8(32) 1(33) X(33) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 7( 9) 25(34) 10(44) 7(51) 1(52) X(52) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 2 5( 7) 21(28) 9(37) 7(44) 1(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER BROWN