000 FOPZ12 KNHC 231445 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 1500 UTC WED MAY 23 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 7 19 37 TROP DEPRESSION X X 2 5 27 35 36 TROPICAL STORM 38 20 40 52 55 42 25 HURRICANE 62 80 58 43 12 5 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 58 60 43 32 10 4 2 HUR CAT 2 3 15 11 7 2 X X HUR CAT 3 1 4 4 3 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 70KT 65KT 50KT 40KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 2(19) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 12(21) 8(29) 2(31) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 11(19) 6(25) 3(28) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 2(12) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG