000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220233 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 0300 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 1 1 X 1 11 24 TROP DEPRESSION 36 15 5 1 3 19 24 TROPICAL STORM 61 76 57 28 30 46 42 HURRICANE 1 8 38 71 66 24 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 7 31 43 38 18 9 HUR CAT 2 X 1 5 19 17 4 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 2 8 9 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X X 2 2 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 45KT 60KT 75KT 80KT 65KT 55KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) 2(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 3(28) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 13(33) 2(35) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 3(28) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) P ANGEL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE