000 FOPZ12 KNHC 210236 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BEATRIZ WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 0300 UTC TUE JUN 21 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 2 3 13 44 61 TROP DEPRESSION 1 6 3 6 31 37 30 TROPICAL STORM 39 37 44 54 49 19 9 HURRICANE 61 55 51 37 7 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 57 45 40 29 6 1 X HUR CAT 2 3 7 8 6 1 X X HUR CAT 3 1 2 3 2 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 75KT 70KT 50KT 30KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) SAN BLAS 34 3 13(16) 13(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) SAN BLAS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 9 41(50) 12(62) 2(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) P VALLARTA 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 78 15(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 10 35(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 85 8(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MANZANILLO 50 16 16(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MANZANILLO 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 11(23) 1(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 17(20) 27(47) 6(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA