000 FOPZ12 KNHC 222034 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 6 11 23 38 54 TROP DEPRESSION X 7 15 22 35 36 31 TROPICAL STORM 84 66 57 57 39 25 15 HURRICANE 16 26 21 11 4 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 14 23 18 9 4 2 1 HUR CAT 2 1 3 2 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 65KT 65KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) 1(29) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 21(21) 29(50) 3(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 27(27) 19(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 8 7(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE