000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220249 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009 0300 UTC MON JUN 22 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 4 12 24 40 TROP DEPRESSION 21 13 13 15 26 33 35 TROPICAL STORM 78 78 70 57 51 38 24 HURRICANE 2 8 15 24 10 4 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 13 20 9 4 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 2 X X HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 50KT 40KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 14(19) 1(20) X(20) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 15(33) X(33) X(33) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 11(30) X(30) X(30) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 7(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) X(19) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN