000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181444 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 16 80(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ISLA CLARION 50 1 70(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ISLA CLARION 64 X 36(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 115W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 4 56(60) 7(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 55(70) 7(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI