000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030834 PWSEP1 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 80(81) 10(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 16(16) 22(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PASCH