000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160843 PWSEP1 HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 2 29 64 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 3 12 44 28 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 3 55 64 26 8 NA NA HURRICANE 97 43 23 1 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 59 38 19 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 34 4 3 X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 5 1 1 X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85KT 70KT 55KT 35KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 1 30(31) 34(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) P ABREOJOS 50 X 4( 4) 21(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) P ABREOJOS 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 6 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LORETO 34 2 50(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) LORETO 50 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LORETO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HUATABAMPO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI