000 FOPZ11 KNHC 152044 PWSEP1 HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 8 42 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 3 28 40 NA NA TROPICAL STORM X 10 52 57 18 NA NA HURRICANE 99 90 44 7 1 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 51 36 6 1 NA NA HUR CAT 2 35 30 7 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 59 8 1 X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 3 1 X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 100KT 85KT 70KT 50KT 30KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 20(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 9(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) LORETO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LORETO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN