000 FOPZ11 KNHC 141437 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 2 15 33 50 TROP DEPRESSION 1 1 3 12 37 38 33 TROPICAL STORM 86 48 49 60 44 27 16 HURRICANE 13 51 48 26 5 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 12 43 37 20 4 2 1 HUR CAT 2 1 6 7 4 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 2 3 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 65KT 55KT 40KT 30KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) X(21) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 2 57(59) 23(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA CLARION 50 X 18(18) 25(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 64 X 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI