000 FOPZ11 KNHC 122049 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 2100 UTC WED OCT 12 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 14 22 27 33 34 37 TROP DEPRESSION 39 56 49 42 38 37 34 TROPICAL STORM 59 28 28 29 26 27 28 HURRICANE 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN