000 FOPZ11 KNHC 081458 PWSEP1 HURRICANE IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 3 12 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 2 8 14 25 TROPICAL STORM 38 34 27 43 52 58 51 HURRICANE 62 65 72 55 39 26 13 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 58 53 49 38 30 20 11 HUR CAT 2 3 9 16 11 7 4 1 HUR CAT 3 1 3 6 5 3 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 75KT 70KT 65KT 60KT 55KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 1(15) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART