000 FOPZ11 KNHC 070839 PWSEP1 HURRICANE IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 0900 UTC FRI OCT 07 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X 1 3 TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 2 5 11 TROPICAL STORM 3 3 8 17 31 43 54 HURRICANE 97 97 92 83 67 51 33 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 66 32 34 41 41 36 26 HUR CAT 2 28 43 34 25 17 10 5 HUR CAT 3 3 19 19 13 8 4 2 HUR CAT 4 1 3 4 4 1 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 90KT 90KT 85KT 80KT 75KT 70KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 3(21) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG