000 FOPZ11 KNHC 081434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 1500 UTC WED JUN 08 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 2 5 12 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 3 10 25 TROPICAL STORM 23 8 10 10 15 46 50 HURRICANE 77 92 90 90 81 39 13 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 47 37 33 34 29 11 HUR CAT 2 5 34 33 28 26 8 1 HUR CAT 3 1 10 17 23 17 3 X HUR CAT 4 X 2 4 6 4 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 85KT 90KT 95KT 95KT 75KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 2(19) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 15(25) 5(30) 2(32) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 13(24) 5(29) 1(30) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 2 3( 5) 11(16) 8(24) 6(30) 2(32) X(32) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 4( 6) 9(15) 6(21) 4(25) 2(27) X(27) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) P MALDONADO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 6(26) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN