000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072042 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 2100 UTC TUE JUN 07 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 2 5 8 TROP DEPRESSION 13 9 5 3 4 4 9 TROPICAL STORM 85 78 60 43 29 28 46 HURRICANE 2 12 34 54 64 63 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 11 29 37 38 36 27 HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 11 16 16 7 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 9 9 2 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 2 2 X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 85KT 75KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 4(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 3(25) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 15(25) 5(30) 2(32) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 13(24) 3(27) 1(28) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 2(23) X(23) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI