000 FOPZ11 KNHC 091431 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODILE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 1500 UTC THU OCT 09 2008 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 4 11 19 26 TROP DEPRESSION 1 4 7 11 19 24 32 TROPICAL STORM 90 75 63 58 53 49 39 HURRICANE 9 21 30 27 17 8 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 9 19 25 22 14 7 3 HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 4 3 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 65KT 65KT 60KT 55KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 2(17) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 2(17) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 3(28) 1(29) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 13(26) 2(28) X(28) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 12(25) 5(30) 1(31) X(31) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P MALDONADO 34 1 4( 5) 17(22) 5(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ANGEL 34 2 10(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HUATULCO 34 2 8(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SALINA CRUZ 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH