000 FOPZ11 KNHC 082034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 2100 UTC WED OCT 08 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 4 7 7 15 26 32 TROP DEPRESSION 58 40 33 30 23 22 25 TROPICAL STORM 39 54 56 54 49 43 38 HURRICANE 1 2 5 9 13 9 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 4 8 10 8 4 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 2 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 60KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 2(17) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 5(20) 1(21) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ANGEL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 12(25) 1(26) 1(27) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 2(24) X(24) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SALINA CRUZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TAPACHULA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P SAN JOSE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH