000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 0900 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 2 3 3 6 16 TROP DEPRESSION 24 22 21 18 12 22 41 TROPICAL STORM 75 72 67 62 59 60 42 HURRICANE 1 4 9 17 26 12 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 4 8 14 22 11 2 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 3 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 65KT 60KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 3(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN